I have shown that the Case-Shiller Index is built on questionable assumptions and gives much greater weight to certain kinds of home sales, which distorts the raw data beyond recognition.
I have also explained why median sale prices are useless when the banks have sharply reduced the number of lower-priced foreclosed properties they put on the market.
The most important factor you need to consider now is the "shadow inventory." It is very real and comprised mainly of seriously delinquent properties not yet foreclosed. The problem has always been how can we find reliable numbers.
For nearly 2 years, I have published several articles with the most reliable statistics in the entire nation. In that case, please take a look at these surprising numbers obtained from a very reliable contact at the New York State Division of Banking. They show the cumulative totals for pre-foreclosure notices sent to delinquent borrowers in New York City and Long Island.